The Polls Continue to Point in Arcuri's Favor

 The race between Michael Arcuri and Richard Hanna for the seat in the 24^th District of New York is reaching its final weeks.  Throughout the race polls have been taken to in order to determine where each candidate states.  According to Paul Herrnson, “Polls are amongst the most common means of gauging public opinion.”  The most recent poll taken October 12-14 by The Hill/Penn Schoen & Berland Democratic poll has shown Arcuri to be 10 points ahead of Hanna.  Results similar to this have been shown in polls throughout the race.  It is apparent that Arcuri has a fairly comfortable lead.  It is a lead that wasn’t predicted at the beginning of the race and has continued to steadily increase.

In response to the results of their poll The Hill called the race between Arcuri and Hanna the race of the day on October 21 saying:

 “Rep. Michael Arcuri (D-N.Y.) is one incumbent who appears to be in good position to survive next month's expected GOP wave.”  

“Arcuri's strength comes among independent voters, where he leads Hanna by nearly 20 points — 46 percent to 27.”

“The Hill poll found other positive indicators for Arcuri. His favorables are high — 52 percent to 29, even with more than 70 percent of likely voters in the district disapproving of the job Congress is doing.”


“He's also winning over a significant number of Republicans. Arcuri has the backing of 19 percent of Republicans in our poll, while just 8 percent of Democrats are backing Hanna.”


Most recently the two candidates debated at the Rome Chamber Breakfast, according to The Oneida Daily Dispatch,  on October 20^th with both candidates throwing jabs on issues such as taxes, the stimulus bill, and campaign ads that have gotten consistently more hostile as the race has progressed.

Arcuri and Hanna debating at the Rome Chamber Breakfast

Candidates Rely More and More on the Internet

With the race coming down to the wire Congressional candidates across the country are emptying all of their campaign money into all forms of advertising.  Television, radio, newspapers, direct mailings, and mass telephone calls are all mediums at the disposal of the candidates.  Generally these methods of advertising are expensive, labor intensive, or both.  However, the Internet serves as a mode of advertising that is neither of these things. 

According to Paul Herrnson in Congressional Elections:

“Campaigns save money and effort, and avoid mistakes, when they direct voter, donor, and press inquiries to their website.”

Both Rep. Michael Arcuri and Richard Hanna have campaign websites that state their stance on issues, provide background information about each candidate, and keep website viewers updated on the happenings of the race.  Websites are an equalizer in some ways that allow both candidates to clearly articulate their positions better than they could on an expensive thirty second TV advertisement or photo/campaign slogan in a newspaper.

 For example as the Utica Observer-Dispatch recently pointed out Hanna released another television ad that smears Arcuri saying he failed at increasing jobs in Upstate New York.  A viewer who watches this ad may become curious about Arcuri’s credibility and may want to learn more about him and also Hanna for that matter.  By visiting each candidates website a potential voter is able to get a clearer picture of each candidate and make an informed decision come election day.

Both candidates even have Facebook pages which can be seen here:

Unexpected Stances on a Touchy Issue

Specific foreign and domestic issues are a major part of the messages that Congressional candidates portray in their campaigns.  Paul Herrnson states “Most house candidates and campaign aides maintain that the bulk of their message focus on policy concerns rather than the candidate’s personality, a claim borne out by examinations of their campaign and materials.”

Arcuri & Hanna

Most recently the NYC mosque issue has been brought up between Michael Arcuri and Richard Hanna.  In an ironic turn of events Arcuri and Hanna have gone against their parties opinions on the issue with Arcuri opposing the mosque and Hanna in support of it.  

Hanna has said of the mosque situation:

“It's extremely easy to understand why people are upset by this, but this country was founded by people who were running away from religious persecution. So how can we become what we have beheld and found contemptible in other places?”
 

In response to this Arcuri swiftly sided with opponents of the mosque:

“The pain felt by many Americans from the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks is still very real, and I can understand how the thought of building a mosque near Ground Zero could reopen those wounds. For the sake of the victims and their families, I think another location should be chosen.”

Arcuri believes that Hanna is not as moderate as he’d like voters in Upstate New York to think.  Jeb Fain, Arcuri’s press secretary has said, “It depends who he’s talking to. I'd say that a lot of people support Wall Street reform, but Hanna opposed it. I wouldn't say that makes you a moderate in upstate New York.”

An overview of this debate and the other happenings of the Arcuri vs. Hanna race can be found in this Times article.

 The mosque issue is one of several including job security, social security, education, and health care that each candidate must strategically address if they intend to have any chance of winning their race.  Taking a particular stance on a particular issue could potentially mean more votes for one candidate and a loss of votes for the other.

PAC's All Around...

According to Paul Herrnson in Congressional Elections a PAC (political action committee can best be understood as, “…the electoral arm of an organized interest.”  In the race in the 24^th District of New York Rep. Michael Arcuri (D) and Richard Hanna are both being supported by different PAC’s who are proving there’s plenty of outside interest.

A great article from auburnpub.com explains the extent to which outside organizations are providing support for the two candidates.

Richard Hanna is receiving support from Americans for Job Security (AJS) in the form of a $375,000 television smear campaign, as I mentioned in my last blog entry.  This independent expenditure by the AJS is a significant contribution, considering the cap if they would have directly donated to Hanna is $5,000.  Not to mention Hanna currently has $500,070 on hand and has raised $778,694 thus far.  Hanna’s campaign spokeswoman, Renee Gamela said the Hanna campaign was unaware of the ad campaign until it was released, which is most likely not the entire truth of the matter.

           

Hanna is not the only one receiving support however.  According to the Center for Responsive Politics, Arcuri has received over two-thirds of his campaign earnings from political action committees, most of which are based out of Washington.  He has received contributions from PAC;’s ranging from the politically based Blue Dog PAC to businesses such as Nucor Steel, who has a plant in Auburn,that donated $1,000 to his campaign.  As a member of the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, Arcuri has also received contributions from some industries that can be linked to this committee. 

Arcuri’s spokesman Jeb Fain defended the contributions saying they were different from the ones Hanna was receiving.  Fain had this to say:

“The difference is transparency. Contributions to our campaign are available for the public to see as a matter of law and principle.  In typical Wall Street fashion, Mr. Hanna’s friends at AJS are using loopholes to spend hundreds of thousands of dollars on his behalf, while keeping their donors a secret from upstate New Yorkers.” 

With tensions running high as November approaches, not even Arcuri who is leading in the latest polls, is willing to promise victory as it is still premature.

           

           

The DCCC vs. AJS

In the most recent poll released this past Monday (9/20/10) by Sierra Research Institute incumbent Michael Arcuri (D) is still leading his rival Richard Hanna (R) 48% to 40%.  Both candidates ran uncontested in the September 14^th primary elections.  As November rolls ever closer both Arcuri and Hanna are receiving support from outside organizations.

According to Paul Herrnson in Congressional Elections, “Party committees distribute most of their campaign support to candidates in close elections.”  Such is evident by the video that has just been released by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

The video smears Richard Hanna saying he supported an organization with an agenda to privatize social security and even linked his investments to companies that were involved in the BP oil spill disaster. 

However Arcuri is not the only one with some backing from an organization.  According to thedailystar.com Americans for Job Security (AJS), a Virginia-based lobbying organization, has launched a $375,000 television campaign against Arcuri.

The ad urged voters not to vote for Arcuri stating that he voted in favor for the $787 billion American Recovery and Reinvestment Act in 2009 and he voted with U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi nine times out of ten.  In response to the ad Arcuri’s campaign press secretary Jeb Fain called AJS, “a Washington GOP special interest group dedicated to unfair trade.”

With recent polls consistently showing in favor of Arcuri and with the tight race that occurred between the two contestants in 2008 it looks like the support of these organizations could really make the difference between who wins this race.

Incumbent Lawyer vs. Self-Made Businessman

A tight race is underway for the Congressional seat in the 24^th District of New York.  The NY Times profile for the 24th District calls it a toss up, showing a 54% chance of Richard Hanna (R) beating out incumbent Michael Arcuri (D).   In January Times Magazine ranked it as one of the top ten Congressional races of the year. With a race this close it may be helpful to take a closer look at both candidates occupational histories.

According to Paul S. Herrnson:

“Occupation has a tremendous effect on the pool of House candidates and on their prospects of success.”

Michael Arcuri is both a lawyer and former District Attorney of Oneita County.  In 2006, the year Arcuri was elected to the House, 33% of all nomination candidates and 40% of all general election candidates consisted of individuals with legal training.  Not to mention the fact Arcuri has been an incumbent for the past four years in the 24^th District greatly increases his odds of another win.

On the other hand self-made businessman Richard Hanna is no slouch.  After graduating from college Hanna started up a construction company in 1976, which today has grown to employ more than 450 people.  Hanna is also a partner in the Gabriela Group, LLC, which owns and operates Forge Hill Estates in Ilion, New York.  Approximately 7% of House members have assets worth over $4.67 million, and if Hanna does win he will most certainly join that 7%. With his money, skills, and contacts Hanna makes a formidable opponent.

As of September 4^th, according to auburnpub.com, Arcuri has raised $127,647 and has $601,729 in cash on hand.  Hanna has received $81,604 in contributions and has $500,070 on hand.  According to this it seems that Arcuri’s incumbency might trump Hanna’s entrepreneurship and wealth.

A Toss Up in the 24th District of NY

• I have chosen to follow the Congressional race in the 24th District of New York because it looks to be a toss up with an interesting history. Firstly in 2008 incumbent Michael Arcuri (D) beat out his current opponent Richard Hanna (R) taking 52% of the vote winning his spot by a slim 4% margin. Arcuri, first won his seat in the House in 2006, becoming the first democrat to represent the district since 1983 and only the second democrat in 106 years. 

Michael Arcuri

                                                              

Richard Hanna

• In May “The Washington Post” made a list of the top 30 house races that are most likely to have parties switch. Arcuri was listed at number 16. The Post noted that Arcuri has lost much of his support having to go outside of the 24th district for campaign contributions. His opponent, Hanna, out raised him in the first quarter by $150,000 receiving 91% of his contributions from within the 24th Congressional District.

• However according to a recent poll conducted August 29-31 by Benenson Strategy Group that surveyed 400 likely voters Arcuri leads Hanna 50% to 37%. In response to this Hanna’s spokeswoman bitterly contested the results stating that other polls show “completely different results” and that voters are tired of paying higher taxes that have ruined upstate New York’s economy. Arcuri’s spokesman said the only poll that matters is the one on Novemeber 2nd.

• Michael Arcuri a member of the moderate Blue Dog Coalition and former District Attorney has a reputation as one of the most centrist members of the House with a voting record of 50.2% liberal and 49.8% conservative. Richard Hanna on the other hand is a self-made businessman who is simply concerned with the condition of upstate New York. It seems that Hanna would be the more fitting victor in this race for a seat in a traditionally Republican district. Some polls however indicate that the race may be closer than others have predicted.